samedi 4 juin 2016

USA : élection, "Alors, quoi, qu'est-ce qui se dresse entre nous et un prochain président incontrôlable?"

B04061605:25 - "Alors, quoi, qu'est-ce qui se dresse entre nous et un prochain président sans borne qui pourrait sortir de la prochaine élection ? Le renvoi d'un président par sa mise en accusation est extrêmement difficile; cela n'a jamais eu lieu. Le plus grand obstacle à l'immense pouvoir de M. Trump n'est pas la séparation des pouvoirs, mais les millions d'employés fédéraux qui sont censés travailler pour lui" conclue The New York Times.

Malgré la dernière saillie prétendument rassurante de la favorite démocrate, la bienpensance new-yorkaise s'angoisse toujours à l'idée que M Trump s'installe dans le bureau ovale de la Maison Blanche et commence déjà à distiller comme un poison un plan pour saboter de l'intérieur une éventuelle présidence Trump.

Pour en arriver à de telles extrêmes, il faut vraiment que les démocrates n'y croient plus du tout et le sabotage suggéré par le porte-parole de la CIA n'est pas autre chose qu'un appel à la guerre civile.
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And if Elected: What President Trump Could or Couldn’t Do

The New York Times, le 4 Juin 2016

Titre et inter-titres E Gaillot pour €calypse News, le 4 Juin 2016


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DONALD TRUMP clearly holds grudges. He has hurled insults at governors, senators, a judge who recently ruled against him and Miss Universe 2014. He has also attacked the press, arguing that as president he will “open up” libel laws so he can sue newspapers that publish “purposely negative and horrible and false articles” about him.

Mr. Trump’s critics wonder whether a man with such a violent temper can be trusted with the presidency. But his defenders, like Senator John McCain and the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, assure us that the Constitution will constrain him.
nous avons encore les institutions de gouvernement qui restreindrait quelqu'un qui chercherait à outrepasser ses obligations constitutionnelles. Nous avons un Congrès. Nous avons la Cour suprême. Nous ne sommes pas en Roumanie
“I still believe we have the institutions of government that would restrain someone who seeks to exceed their constitutional obligations,” Mr. McCain told The New York Times. “We have a Congress. We have the Supreme Court. We’re not Romania.”
En vertu du principe de séparation des pouvoirs, le président partage le pouvoir avec le Congrès et le pouvoir judiciaire. Le système des partis, la presse et les traditions politiques américaines peuvent aussi le contraindre. Mais qu'est-ce que cela signifie dans la pratique si M. Trump gagne?
Under the principle of separation of powers, the president shares power with Congress and the judiciary. The party system, the press and American political traditions may constrain him as well. But what would this mean in practice if Mr. Trump wins?
Cela dépend de ce que M. Trump veut faire. Ses objectifs sont l'immigration et le commerce. Il ne peut pas construire le mur mexicain sans le soutien du Congrès. Mais il pourrait ordonner aux autorités de l'immigration d'expulser les immigrants non autorisés.

It depends on what Mr. Trump wants to do. His signature issues are immigration and trade. He could not build the Mexican wall without congressional support. But he could order immigration authorities to deport unauthorized immigrants.
Et il pourrait interdire aux musulmans d'entrer dans le pays en vertu de la législation en vigueur
And he could bar Muslims from entering the country under existing law, which authorizes him to bar classes of aliens whose entry he determines “would be detrimental to the interests of the United States.” It wouldn’t be the first time: President Ronald Reagan cited this law, as well as his inherent constitutional powers, to block a flood of Haitian migrants from pouring into United States territory in 1981.
Peut-il instaurer une barrière tarifaire contre la Chine, comme il a menacé? Oui il peut
Can he slap tariffs on China, as he has threatened? Yes, he can. Congress has delegated to the president the power to retaliate against foreign countries that engage in unfair trade practices like dumping, leaving it to the president and trade officials to determine what that means. In 2002, President George W. Bush imposed steel tariffs on China and other countries for what everyone understood were political reasons.


The World Trade Organization ruled the steel tariffs illegal in that case. But Mr. Trump could simply ignore its judgment, and indeed withdraw the United States from the W.T.O., just as President Bush withdrew the United States from the Antiballistic Missile Treaty in 2002. While he’s at it, Mr. Trump could tear up the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, an organization that he has called “obsolete.”
En mai, M. Trump a promis d'annuler les politiques environnementales du président Obama. Il serait en mesure de le faire aussi bien. Il pourrait dénoncer l'accord de Paris sur le changement climatique
In May, Mr. Trump vowed to rescind President Obama’s environmental policies. He would be able to do that as well. He could disavow the Paris climate change agreement, just as President Bush “unsigned” a treaty creating an international criminal court in 2002. He could choke off climate regulations that are in development and probably withdraw existing climate regulations. Even if a court blocked him, he could refuse to enforce the regulations, just as Mr. Obama refused to enforce immigration laws.
En exerçant le pouvoir exécutif de cette façon, M. Trump suivrait le même chemin que ses prédécesseurs
In wielding executive power in these ways, Mr. Trump would be following in the footsteps of his predecessors. President Bush cited his commander in chief powers in order to justify interrogation, surveillance and detention polices in the wake of Sept. 11. While Mr. Obama has shied away from Mr. Bush’s constitutional arguments, he has interpreted statutes aggressively, while also relying on constitutional authorities, to justify the military intervention in Libya in 2011 and his nonenforcement of immigration laws.
Il ne serait pas en mesure de mettre quelqu'un en prison simplement pour l'avoir critiquer. Mais il pourrait ordonner aux organismes d'utiliser leurs vastes pouvoirs de réglementation contre les dirigeants d'entreprises qui lui ont déplu
Mr. Trump has expressed impatience with his critics and hinted that he would use federal powers against them. He wouldn’t be able to put someone in jail merely for criticizing him. But he could direct agencies to use their vast regulatory powers against the companies of executives who have displeased him, like Jeff Bezos, for example, the founder of Amazon. Mr. Trump has already hinted that he would go after Amazon for supposed antitrust violations.

He could direct the Department of Justice to investigate his critics by prioritizing categories of crimes they may have committed. Political opponents could be accused of campaign finance law violations. Former government officials, like Hillary Clinton, could be accused of violating secrecy laws. Even if the charges come to nothing, the legal fees for defendants will be hefty.
M. Trump pourrait aussi sévir contre les journalistes qui couvrent les questions de sécurité nationale par l'application plus stricte que celle de ses prédécesseurs des lois sur le secret fédéral
Mr. Trump could also crack down on journalists who report on national security issues by enforcing federal secrecy laws more aggressively than previous presidents. President Obama received a lot of criticism for prosecuting government employees who leaked secrets, but the Justice Department did not bring charges against the journalists who published the leaked information.
Qu'est-ce ne pourrait pas faire  M. Trump ? Il ne pourrait pas baisser (ou augmenter) les impôts de son propre chef. Il est censé dépenser les fonds que le Congrès lui alloue et pour les choses que le Congrès approuve
What couldn’t Mr. Trump do? He couldn’t lower (or raise) taxes on his own. He’s supposed to spend funds that Congress appropriates and for the things that Congress appropriates them for — that’s what stands in the way of the wall (unless he persuades Mexico to pay for it and construct it on the other side of the border).
Il ne pourrait pas donner suite à sa promesse d'imposer par décret la peine de mort aux tueurs de policiers
He could not follow through on his promise to impose the death penalty on killers of police officers by executive order. And even where he does act, he needs to make sure his legal theories are in order. If he wanted to withdraw climate regulations because climate change is a hoax perpetuated by China, no court would allow him to. But if he said that the climate regulations were based on a speculative assessment of harms that wouldn’t occur for 100 years, he could succeed.
Il pourrait envoyer des forces militaires dans un pays étranger sans l'autorisation du Congrès;
Much depends on how far Mr. Trump is willing to push existing legal understandings. There is a netherworld of laws that presidents are supposed to comply with but courts don’t enforce. He could send military forces into a foreign country without authorization from Congress; courts would most likely stay out of the dispute. What of his suggestion earlier this year to kill the families of terrorists? Courts typically defer to the executive on matters concerning military activities abroad. He might even try to withhold appropriated funds or shift them around in defiance of Congress’s wishes.
Alors, quoi, qu'est-ce qui se dresse entre nous et un prochain président sans borne qui pourrait être désigner par la prochaine élection ?  Le renvoi d'un président par la mise en accusation est extrêmement difficile; cela n'a jamais eu lieu
What, then, stands between us and a nearly unbounded Mr. Trump, aside from the next election? Senators McCain and McConnell say Congress, but only a veto-proof majority in both houses, passing new laws, could stop Mr. Trump from exercising the legal authority that Congress has already given the president. Congress can threaten to withhold funds, but the president’s powers to veto legislation and appoint government officers give him a large bargaining chip. Removal of a president by impeachment is extremely difficult; it has never happened.

The courts are another barrier, but they would need to reverse their longstanding practice of deferring to the president in matters of foreign affairs and domestic regulation. The Supreme Court could, for example, declare an entry bar on Muslims unconstitutional. But it’s hard to predict how Mr. Trump would respond. After a federal judge, Gonzalo Curiel, ruled against him on a motion in the long-running Trump University litigation, Mr. Trump called him a “hater” and a “Mexican” (Judge Curiel is an American).
Le plus grand obstacle à l'immense pouvoir de M. Trump n'est pas la séparation des pouvoirs, mais les millions d'employés fédéraux qui sont censés travailler pour lui
Mr. Trump’s biggest obstacle to vast power is not the separation of powers but the millions of federal employees who are supposed to work for him. Most of these employees have a strong sense of professionalism and are dedicated to the mission of their agency. They don’t take kindly to arbitrary orders from above. As President Harry Truman said ahead of Dwight D. Eisenhower’s presidency: “He’ll sit here, and he’ll say, ‘Do this! Do that!’ And nothing will happen.”
Ces employés peuvent trainer des pieds, provoquer des fuites dans la presse, menacer de démissionner et employer encore d'autres tactiques pour saper les initiatives de M. Trump si elles s'opposent à eux. Ils sont par ailleurs difficiles à licencier, grâce aux protections de la fonction publique
To make things happen, Mr. Trump will need to get loyalists into leadership positions of the agencies, but to do so, he will need the cooperation of the Senate (or he will need to aggressively exploit his recess appointment powers). Moreover, the small number of politically appointed leaders enjoy only limited control of the mass of civil servants. These employees can drag their feet, leak to the press, threaten to resign and employ other tactics to undermine Mr. Trump’s initiatives if they object to them. They’re also hard to fire, thanks to Civil Service protections.
Mais M. Trump peut se battre. Il peut nommer des loyalistes non seulement à des postes politiques dans la branche exécutive, mais devant les tribunaux, et il peut être en mesure de les attirer dans les rangs de la fonction publique. Et tandis que les responsables de l'exécutif qui ne respectent pas la loi pourraient être poursuivis par le ministère de la Justice, le président Trump aurait un truc de plus dans sa manche.
But Mr. Trump can fight back. He can appoint loyalists not only to political positions in the executive branch, but to the courts, and he may be able to attract them to the ranks of the Civil Service. And while executive branch officials who disregard the law might be prosecuted by the Justice Department, President Trump would have one more trick up his sleeve. Like President George H.W. Bush, who rescued Iran-contra defendants from punishment in 1992, he could hand out get-out-of-jail-free cards in the form of the pardon.
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