mercredi 20 avril 2016

USA: élections, malgré des sondages très favorables, Trump pourrait subir un revers majeur en Pennsylvanie

E20041621:50 - "Dans une répartition proportionnelle standard, M. Trump serait probablement sur la bonne voie pour gagner au moins 40 des délégués de l'État de Pennsylvanie pourtant, malgré des sondages très favorables, il pourrait y subir un revers majeur compte tenu du mode très particulier de désignation des délégués" rapporte The New York Times.

Ce manque à gagner pourrait empêcher Trump de gagner sur le fil les 1237 délégués nécessaires pour remporter la primaire républicaine. C'est pour résoudre ce genre de "bizarrerie" que le candidat a embauché Paul Manafort, un expert confirmé en retournement de délégués.
The Loophole That Could Cost Donald Trump the Nomination 
Nate Cohn pour The New York Times, le 20 Avril 2016

Titre et inter-titres E Gaillot pour €calypse News, le 20 Avril 2016

La Pennsylvanie, qui tient sa primaire mardi prochain, utilise un mode de désignation de ses délégués qui pourrait coûter la nomination républicaine de Donald Trump
Pennsylvania, which holds its primary next Tuesday, uses a nonbinding “loophole” primary — and that could cost Donald Trump the Republican nomination.

If the state adopted the delegate rules of any other primary, he would probably be an even-money favorite, or better, to amass the 1,237 delegates needed before the convention.

Instead, his chances may come down to the whims of 54 unpledged Pennsylvania delegates.
Aucun autre Etat laisse un si grand nombre de ses délégués (54) non liés - autorisés à voter pour qui ils veulent à la convention 
No other state leaves so many of its delegates unbound — allowed to vote for whomever they please at the convention. That’s because it conducts its loophole primary in two parts. First is the “beauty contest,” which is a presidential primary preference vote. The winner of the beauty contest gets all of Pennsylvania’s 17 at-large and bonus delegates.

But the remaining 54 — the three delegates awarded to each congressional district — are unbound and elected in the delegate selection primary. In this part, voters directly elect delegates to the national convention. What makes Pennsylvania’s delegate selection primary so distinctive is that the ballot includes no guidance on whom a delegate will support at the national convention. A voter will just see a list of names — some of whom might be recognizable, but others might as well be Joe Schmo.

(It’s called a loophole primary because it could circumvent the delegate allocation rules. Voters could, in theory, elect a slate of delegates who unanimously support one candidate, even in cases where a winner-take-all contest was prohibited.)
Donald Trump pourrait subir un revers majeur, même s'il domine en Pennsylvanie la semaine prochaine
Donald Trump could suffer a major setback even if he dominates in Pennsylvania next week. Nathaniel Brooks for The New York Times

The result is that Pennsylvania, with the seventh-most G.O.P. delegates of any state, ranks 49th in pledged delegates. It’s behind even Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia.

The other two states with loophole primaries — West Virginia and Illinois — take a somewhat different approach: The delegates pledge whom they’ll support, and their preferences are listed alongside their names on the ballot.

When you read articles about whether Mr. Trump can reach 1,237 pledged delegates by the convention, these 54 delegates are held out of the analysis.
M. Trump serait favori pour gagner la majorité des 71 délégués de la Pennsylvanie en vertu de tout autre système de primaire
Mr. Trump would be favored to win a majority of Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates under any other primary system. He leads by at least nine percentage points in every survey in the state, and is ahead of Ted Cruz by an average of 44 percent to 28 percent, according to The Huffington Post Pollster. He’s up by a similar margin of 46 percent to 30 percent in The Upshot’s demographic-based model. Our model gives him an edge in 15 of the state’s 18 congressional districts.
Dans une répartition proportionnelle standard, M. Trump serait probablement sur la bonne voie pour gagner au moins 40 des délégués de l'État
In a standard proportional allocation, Mr. Trump would probably be on track to win at least 40 of the state’s delegates. In a winner-take-most system, like Indiana’s or California’s, Mr. Trump would be favored to win at least 60 delegates.

The difference matters a lot because Mr. Trump’s prize of 1,237 hangs on a thread. He is probably on track to finish a bit short of 1,237. Our model puts his projected delegate deficit as slightly less than the number of delegates left unpledged (54) in Pennsylvania, meaning he would be projected to win if they were bound delegates.

Although facing a challenge in Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump has benefited from other quirks in the Republican primary rules. Compared with the Democrats’ rules, the Republican ones are far more favorable to a candidate who wins with a plurality of the vote. And with the race as close as it is, any number of tweaks in the rules could make Mr. Trump a clear favorite — or an overwhelming underdog.

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